Xov Xwm - Cov Qauv Tshiab thiab Kev Hloov Pauv ntawm Cov Qauv hauv Kev Lag Luam Hlau Xa Tawm hauv Suav Teb xyoo 2026

Xyoo 2026, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev xa khoom hlau mus rau lwm lub teb chaws tau hloov kho dua tshiab. Vim muaj kev cuam tshuam ob yam ntawm cov cai tswjfwm kev xa khoom hauv tsev nruj dua thiab cov nyiaj tau los tsawg dua rau cov chaw tsim hlau, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tawm hlau tag nrho hauv peb lub hlis thawj zaug (Q1) ntawm xyoo 2026 tau poob qis los ntawm8% txhua xyoo, ua rau qhov kev nthuav dav ntawm kev xa khoom mus rau lwm lub teb chaws uas tau muaj ntau xyoo tas los no xaus. Tib lub sijhawm,cov khoom siv hlau tshwj xeeb uas muaj nqis ntxiv—tsim rau cov teb thov tshwj xeeb—ua tiav kev loj hlob hauv cov lag luam niche. Qhov kev hloov pauv no qhia txog kev hloov pauv ntawm kev lag luam los ntawm tus qauv ib txwm muaj ntawm"tus nqi qis, xa khoom ntau"mus rau ib qho"ntseeg tus nqi, siv thev naus laus zis"tus qauv kev lag luam hla ciam teb.

Kev Txheeb Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm Xa Khoom ntawm Cov Khoom Siv Hlau Tseem Ceeb

1. Cov Hlau Ua tiav Ib Nrab (Billets)

Kev Tso Chaw Zoo:Ib txoj hauv kev los hla dhau cov teeb meem kev lag luam thiab ua haujlwm ua qhov txuas buffer hauv cov saw hlau tsim khoom hla ciam teb.

Cov Chaw Tseem Ceeb:Cov teb chaws Es Xias Qab Teb (Nyab Laj, Indonesia), Middle East, thiab North Africa.

Ntsib nrog cov nqi se tiv thaiv kev pov tseg uas tsom mus rau cov khoom tiav lawm, cov chaw tsim khoom hlau hauv tsev tau tig mus rau qhov tseem ceeb rau kev xa tawm cov hlau ib nrab tiav kom txo tau kev pheej hmoo kev lag luam; hauv Q1 2026, qhov ntim xa tawm ntawm cov hlau billets tau nce los ntawm260% txhua xyoo. Cov chaw tsim khoom hauvASEANcheeb tsam xa cov khoom siv hlau tiav lawm no los ntawm Tuam Tshoj los ua cov khoom tiav lawm. Tus qauv ntawm kev koom tes hla ciam teb no tsis yog tsuas yog hla dhau cov teeb meem kev lag luam xwb - yog li ntawd tswj kev nkag mus rau hauv kev ua lag luam hauv cov cheeb tsam txwv - tab sis kuj ua kom zoo dua qhov kev faib cov pa roj carbon hauv tsev thiab pab txhawb kev ruaj khov ntawm cov saw hlau xa khoom hla tebchaws.

2. Hlau Silicon

Kev Tso Chaw Zoo:Ib tug neeg muab khoom tseem ceeb rau kev tsim kho vaj tse thoob ntiaj teb ntsig txog kev hloov pauv zog.

Cov Chaw Tseem Ceeb:Cov European Union (EU) thiab Brazil (South America).

Hauv Suav teb cov hlau xa tawm xyoo 2026, silicon steel tau tshwm sim ua ntu uas qhia txog kev loj hlob ntawm tus nqi tseem ceeb tshaj plaws.Cov ntaub ntawv kev lis kev cai qhia tau tias thaum Lub Peb Hlis 2026, qhov ntim xa tawm ntawm cov hlau silicon uas tsis yog-taw qhia tau mus txog 42,800 tons, cim peb lub hlis sib law liag ntawm kev loj hlob txhua hli.Kev kho dua tshiab ntawm EU lub zog fais fab, kev nthuav dav ntawm cov haujlwm siv hluav taws xob rov ua dua tshiab, thiab kev tsim cov chaw them hluav taws xob (EV) txuas ntxiv ua rau muaj kev thov ntau rau Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv hlau silicon zoo. Txawm hais tias EU "Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism" (CBAM) yuav siv los, cov khoom siv hlau silicon uas tau txais daim ntawv pov thawj carbon tsawg tseem muaj kev sib tw ua lag luam zoo, ua rau cov nyiaj tau los ntau dua 18% dua li cov khoom siv hlau ib txwm muaj.

3. Cov Qauv Hlau thiab Cov Kav Dej Tshwj Xeeb

Kev Tso Chaw Zoo:Siv cov phiaj xwm loj "Belt and Road 2.0" los ua kom tiav kev xa khoom "Khoom + Kev Pabcuam".

Cov Chaw Tseem Ceeb:Middle East (Saudi Arabia, UAE), East Africa (Ethiopia, Nigeria), thiab Southeast Asia (Indonesia).

Thaum pib xyoo 2026, kev hloov pauv ntawm thaj chaw hauv Middle East ua rau muaj kev tsis txaus ntawm cov hlau engineering-grade. Cov haujlwm tseem ceeb - piv txwv los ntawm Saudi Arabia txoj kev pib ua haujlwm hauv nroog ntse "NEOM" - txuas ntxiv tsav kev xav tau ntau rau cov kav dej loj thiab cov qauv hlau modular.Los ntawm xyoo 2026, qhov ntsuas kev ruaj khov ntawm kev xa khoom rau Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv yeeb nkab tshwj xeeb tau txog 96%.Cov lag luam hauv tsev tau hloov pauv zoo los ntawm kev xa khoom mus rau lwm lub teb chaws mus rau kev muab cov kev daws teeb meem uas suav nrog "cov khoom lag luam, kev pabcuam engineering, thiab kev txhawb nqa kev siv tshuab," yog li ua kom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau lawv cov khoom xa tawm los ntawm kev koom tes hauv "Belt and Road 2.0" cov haujlwm.

4. Cov Hlau Sheet Piles thiab Cov Hlau Yeeb Nkab Piles

Kev Tso Chaw Zoo:Cov neeg tau txais txiaj ntsig ncaj qha los ntawm kev nqis peev thoob ntiaj teb hauv kev tiv thaiv huab cua thiab kev tsim kho vaj tse ntug dej hiav txwv.

Cov Chaw Tseem Ceeb:Cov teb chaws Es Xias Qab Teb (Philippines, Malaysia) thiab Central America.

Kev nqis peev thoob ntiaj teb hauv kev tiv thaiv ntug dej hiav txwv thiab kev tiv thaiv/txo kev puas tsuaj tau muab lub zog loj rau kev loj hlob ntawm kev xa khoom hlau pile hauv xyoo 2026. Qhov tseem ceeb, cov haujlwm tiv thaiv ntug dej hiav txwv hauv Philippines thiab kev nthuav dav chaw nres nkoj hauv Panama suav txog ntau dua 40% ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm kev xa khoom pom hauv cov cheeb tsam no. Txawm hais tias kev lag luam hauv North America ua rau kev xa khoom ntawm cov hlau tsim kho txheem txo qis, kev nqis peev ntxiv los ntawm "Global South" kev lag luam hauv kev tiv thaiv av qeeg, kev tswj dej nyab, thiab kev tsim kho hauv hiav txwv tau muab lub hauv paus ruaj khov ntawm kev thov rau kev lag luam tshwj xeeb ntawm cov hlau tsim kho ua haujlwm siab.

5. Cov ces kaum hlau thiab cov qauv tshwj xeeb

Kev Tso Chaw Zoo:Pab txhawb rau kev tsim khoom thoob ntiaj teb thiab kev xa khoom siv hauv kev lag luam hnyav.

Cov Chaw Tseem Ceeb:Is Nrias teb thiab Mexico.

Txawm hais tias Is Nrias teb tau ua tiav kev txaus siab rau cov khoom siv hlau tiav lawm, nws cov kev lag luam tsim tsheb thiab cov tshuab hnyav tseem vam khom rau cov qauv tsim muaj zog siab uas xa tuaj ntawm Tuam Tshoj, nrog rau tus nqi vam khom kev xa khoom ntau dua 35%. Tib lub sijhawm, qhov kev vam khom "nearshoring" hauv Mexico txoj kev tsim khoom tau tsim kom muaj kev thov ntau rau cov qauv tsim ntawm Tuam Tshoj - feem ntau yog rau kev tsim cov chaw tsim khoom tshiab thiab cov chaw -txhawb kom Mexico tshwm sim hauv xyoo 2026 ua ib qho ntawm cov khw muag khoom loj hlob sai tshaj plaws rau Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tawm ntawm cov khoom siv hlau tshwj xeeb.

Xyoo 2026 Kev Txheeb Xyuas Kev Xa Khoom Thoob Plaws Kev Lag Luam

Xyoo 2026, Tuam Tshoj cov hlau xa tawm yuav tsum ua kom pom cov qauv tsim uas muaj "ntim tsawg, muaj nqis ntau." Txawm hais tias cov ntim khoom xa tawm txhua xyoo yuav poob qis los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv siab tshaj plaws uas tau tsim tsa xyoo 2024 thiab 2025, tag nrho cov nqi xa tawm yuav tsum ua tiav kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm 3% txog 5%, tsav los ntawm kev ua kom zoo dua thiab kev txhim kho ntawm cov khoom sib xyaw.

Txoj cai lij choj yuav tsum tau muab daim ntawv tso cai rau kev xa tawm hlau, uas tau teem sijhawm rau kev siv rau xyoo 2026, yuav ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam loj heev rau kev nkag mus rau hauv kev lag luam. Yog li ntawd, cov peev txheej lag luam txawv teb chaws zoo yuav sib sau ua ke ntau ntxiv hauv cov tuam txhab loj uas muaj peev xwm thiab cov tuam txhab hlau ntsuab uas yog cov tuam txhab ntiag tug. Saib mus tom ntej, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev xa tawm hlau tau npaj txhij los pib hloov pauv txoj kev lag luam - hloov ntawm tus qauv sib tw raws li tus nqi qis thiab kev sib xws ntawm cov khoom mus rau txoj kev loj hlob uas tsom mus rau kev siv tshuab siab, kev tsim cov pa roj carbon tsawg, thiab cov ntaub ntawv kho kom haum - yog li ntawd txuas ntxiv tsav tsheb kev txhim kho cov qauv ntawm cov hlau txawv teb chaws.

Pawg Neeg Muaj Koob Muaj Npe

Chaw Nyob

Kangsheng kev lag luam tsim kho cheeb tsam,
Wuqing koog tsev kawm ntawv, Tianjin nroog, Suav.

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